Paramount certainly seemed pleased. Publicists for the studio, which has placed last at the domestic box office for the last seven years, even as it found occasional hits like “A Quiet Place,” sent out a news release that said in capital red letters, “We’ve been waiting a long, long time — ‘Rocketman’ blasts off in Cannes!”
Doug Creutz, an analyst at Cowen and Company, expects “Rocketman” to collect roughly $120 million in the United States and Canada and rank as one of the 12 biggest movies of the summer. Sequels and reboots will fill every other slot, Mr. Creutz predicted in a recent report, with one exception. He also has high hopes for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (Sony), a lavish 1969-set drama from Quentin Tarantino and starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie.
“Buzz for the film seems pretty solid,” Mr. Creutz said of “Rocketman,” which he described as “a counterprogramming alternative to younger audience-targeted fare.” Also arriving on May 31 is “Godzilla: King of the Monsters” (Warner/Legendary) and “Ma,” a Universal-Blumhouse horror movie.
Still, success for “Rocketman” is far from guaranteed.
How much clamor is there for Elton John music? There may be a great deal: Mr. John has spent the last decade performing sold-out shows in Las Vegas and touring the world to similar results. On the other hand, Mr. John has spent the last decade performing. “Bohemian Rhapsody” benefited from pent-up demand for Mercury, who died in 1991 of complications from AIDS.
One of Paramount’s biggest challenges involves the perception of success. If “Rocketman” sells even half the number of tickets as “Bohemian Rhapsody” it will be a runaway success. But try telling that to box office headline writers.There is no way for Paramount to avoid comparisons to “Bohemian Rhapsody,” even though “Rocketman” is a sharper-edged film that has a more auteur sensibility. Mr. Fletcher’s film begins and ends with Mr. John in rehab, where he identifies himself as an alcoholic, with addictions to cocaine and sex.
Gay imagery was largely underplayed in “Bohemian Rhapsody,” to the dismay of people eager for Hollywood to become less timid about homosexuality. But the depiction of same-sex relationships in “Rocketman” could limit interest in more conservative parts of the United States. The contemporary romantic comedy “Love, Simon” was a hard sell last year because it ventured a kiss between teenage boys. “Rocketman” is expected to generate enormous ticket sales in countries like England, but the film will not make it past Chinese censors without severe sanitization, something that Mr. John is likely to deem a nonstarter.
“Even if the movie doesn’t make one penny at the box office — which will kill Jim Gianopulos — it is the movie I wanted to make,” Mr. John said from the stage after the Cannes premiere, referring to Paramount’s chairman.
To overcome any box office difficulties, Paramount has thrown all of its weight into marketing the film. Fans can upload photos of themselves to a Paramount website and find out what they would look like in flamboyant Elton John eyewear. (Tagline: “Show the world you were never ordinary.”)
To generate word of mouth, Paramount teamed up with Fandango to offer sneak-peek screenings at 400 theaters on Saturday.
Mr. Gianopulos even likened “Rocketman” to a superhero movie as part of a push for the movie at the most recent CinemaCon, a convention for theater owners. “If musicians were superheroes, Elton John would be Rocketman — capable of escaping the gravity of the ordinary, fear and prejudice,” Mr. Gianopulos said on stage at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, where Mr. John performed 450 shows for 1.8 million fans from 2004 to 2018.
Paramount then sent attendees home with sparkly “Rocketman” T-shirts.
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